Data Analysis & Simulation

The beta testing of our new product, the Simulation & Probabilistic Analysis SDK, is now over, and we want to thank our beta testers for their effort and valuable feedback. One of the most exciting things is that during the beta testing phase, we have not detected any bugs in the SDK, indicating the initial high quality of the product.

The production version of the SDK is now available for public download, so if you are a software developer and need to add distribution fitting or simulation features to your software with no hassle, feel free to download the fully functional version of the SDK and try it free for 30 days.

Another good news is that the Christmas is coming, so we decided to make a gift to software developers who are considering to purchase the SDK: until the end of December, the SDK Developer License can be ordered at a $500 discount – click here details.

The new Software Development Kit enabling you to easily add Monte Carlo simulation and distribution analysis features to your applications is now available for public beta testing – please download the free beta version and take a look at the code examples (available in several languages, including C#, VB.NET, C++, and Visual Basic for Applications).

We would be glad to receive any feedback, questions or suggestions from you, so please feel free to drop us a line and let us know what you think about this product and how we can make it better.

Earlier in December 2008, we announced our plans to create the Software Development Kit that would allow software developers to integrate the simulation and probabilistic analysis functionality of EasyFit into their custom software solutions. Since then, we have been working hard to bring the SDK to market. Despite some delays, we are glad to announce that we have successfully completed the development, and this month we plan to release the beta version of the product.

Become a Beta Tester Today!
Taking part in our beta testing program would not just grant you access to the cutting edge software technology – the most active beta testers will also be able to purchase the SDK at an introductory price before the production version of the SDK is released. To sign up, please contact us with your specific requirements (let us know how you plan to use the SDK and what development platform (C#, VB.NET etc.) you are using.)

We have just released EasyFit Version 5.1 – the update that fixes a bug causing an incorrect calculation of the chi-squared GOF statistic for small sample sizes. To upgrade, uninstall EasyFit 5.0 from your computer, then download and install the latest version.

On April 17 2005, the Millstone nuclear generating plant in Connecticut shut down when a circuit board monitoring a steam pressure line short-circuited. “Tin whiskers” – microscopic growths of the metal from soldering points on a circuit board – were blamed for causing the problem. These whiskers are comprised of nearly pure tin, and are therefore electrically conductive.

Field failures attributable to tin whiskers have cost individual programs many millions of dollars each. As a result, manufacturers of high-reliability systems are forced to use Monte Carlo simulation models to decide whether the use of tin poses an acceptable risk in a given application.

Recently a group of NASA scientists lead by Karim J. Courey, a Principal Engineer with the Orbiter Sustaining Engineering Office, Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, used our distribution fitting software EasyFit to better understand the underlying process and develop a probability model that can be used to improve existing Monte Carlo risk simulation models… read the full case study

There are many probability distributions developed by statisticians to model random data of different kinds, ranging from business data, finance data (stock prices) to engineering data (system failures) and environmental data (max. flood flows). While the standard Excel package includes some basic statistical functions, its support for probability distributions is very limited and almost useless for real world modelling applications. This article discusses the worksheet functions provided by EasyFitXL, the distribution fitting add-in for Excel that can be applied to perform a range of decision-making calculations using a variety of probability distributions… read the full article

Since fitting probability distributions to large data sets can be a time-consuming task, we are currently researching the possibility of using multi-core processors to make EasyFit work faster. During the past several years, major processor manufacturers have been promoting the multi-core technology on the desktop processors market. Multiple cores in a single chip allow for better performance/price ratio on a range of tasks, however, existing software needs to be updated accordingly to take full advantage of this type of hardware.

We have modified the original distribution fitting algorithm to utilize all cores available on a system, and used it to fit distributions to a simulated set of 200,000 data points. In a series of tests on an Intel dual-core processor, the new algorithm executed almost twice as fast, yielding up to 90% performance increase, compared to the version currently used in EasyFit. These are very good results, and we will definitely be including this feature into the next release of EasyFit.

On a related note, last week we were contacted by a customer regarding our upcoming Simulation & Probabilistic Analysis SDK. They need to analyze large volumes of data, and from their description of the problem we estimated that the typical analysis would take up to 20 hours on a modern PC. With the new distribution fitting algorithm, it can take less than 12 hours on a dual-core CPU, or even less on quad-core processors popular in the server space. In a decision making environment where several hours can mean the difference between profit and loss, this is a very important improvement.

Lately we have received a couple messages from customers asking if it’s possible to use the Monte Carlo simulation and distribution fitting features of EasyFit in their own software applications. The short answer is yes, but these features are limited to calculating some distribution functions in Excel VBA. There’s currently no way to run simulations, fit distributions to data, perform goodness of fit tests, or use distribution functions from C#, C++, VB.NET, and other programming languages.

To fill the gap, we are considering to create a Simulation & Probabilistic Analysis Software Development Kit (SPA SDK) for software developers who need to deal with risk & uncertainty in their applications, but don’t have time or expertise to design and implement the required features on their own. We already have in place the tried and true technology that’s a basis for our distribution fitting products EasyFit and EasyFitXL, so creating an SDK would be possible in a short period of time.

Since we have had only a few requests for an SDK, we would like to know whether you would be interested in such kind of product. Below is our vision for the SDK – you are welcome to express any thoughts or specific requirements you might have. Please feel free to contact us and we will take your input seriously.

Update: The free beta version of the SDK is now available for download – please click here for details.

What is a Simulation & Probabilistic Analysis Software Development Kit (SPA SDK) ? Read the rest of this entry »

EasyFit ships with a comprehensive help file providing detailed information on all aspects of fitting distributions to data and interpreting the analysis results. For instance, it includes the description of supported distributions, goodness of fit tests, and output graphs.

If you are considering to try EasyFit but not sure if it has a particular feature you need, you can refer to the EasyFit help online which we have made available on our website for your convenience. Of course, you are still welcome to contact us for any questions regarding EasyFit or fitting distributions in general.

From now on, our distribution fitting software EasyFit can be ordered on a CD, in addition to the download version. The motivation for adding this feature was that in some countries it is required for accounting purposes. Most times you won’t need a CD since EasyFit is available for immediate download from our website, but if you do need it, you might find this feature useful.

The CD will be produced exclusively for you, and will include the EasyFit installation package along with your personal license key and registration details in a separate file.

The CD is priced at $14.95, including shipping. To receive a CD, check the option “Order this product on a CD” and make sure you specify a valid postal address when filling in the order form. Once your order is processed, you will immediately receive your license key via email (so you can start using EasyFit right away), and the CD will be shipped to you in a few days.