The software development community struggles with a way to identify if their projects are on-schedule given the inherent risks of constant invention that inevitably has elements of uncertainty and risk. Current practice is for developers to estimate a software project, and attempt to consider (up-front) all variations to get a viable estimate of time and cost. This process is laborious, and even with due rigor, project slip when the realization that estimates versus actual times fail to match. This leads to costly project overruns and lack of trust in future estimates.
As part of the Agile movement for software development, we think there is a better way and are championing the use of Monte-Carlo simulation as a ways of assessing likely progress and dealing with delays as early as possible… read the full case study